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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 01/16 11:50
Cattle Plummet Lower, Hogs Hold Steady
A few sparse bids are on the table in the fed cash cattle market, but still
no sizeable movement has developed.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed at midday Friday, as the cattle
contracts are trading sharply lower, while the lean hog complex trades mildly
higher. Still no substantial cash cattle trade has developed. March corn is up
6 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $1.10.The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is down 17.92 points and the NASDAQ is up 4.00 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It's been a grim morning thus far for the live cattle complex as most of the
contracts are trading $3.00 to $4.00 lower into midday Friday. February live
cattle are down $4.27 at $231.77, April live cattle are down $4.67 at $233.75
and June live cattle are down $4.45 at $229.45. Pinpointing why the market is
trading lower to such a notable degree is challenging because, up until this
point this week, the market has been solely focused on its strong fundamental
position. But part of the market's uncertainty could stem from the fact that
Thursday afternoon, eight new cases of New World screwworm were detected in
Mexico, or because there's yet to be any cash cattle traded, which causes
traders to become anxious. Nevertheless, today's downturn is somewhat out of
the blue, following a week of mostly bullish sentiment.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.14 ($361.91) and select up $0.59
($360.30) with a movement of 53 loads (37.00 loads of choice, 2.54 loads of
select, 4.14 loads of trim and 9.53 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
If you think the downturn in the live cattle complex is steep, don't even
take a glimpse at the feeder cattle contracts, as most of them are trading
$7.00 to $8.00 lower. January feeders are down $7.20 at $361.20, March feeders
are down $8.97 at $355.55 and April feeders are down $8.60 at $354.10.
Unfortunately, given how steep the contracts have declined, it's likely that
the market will close lower even though fed cash cattle prices are expected to
trade higher.
LEAN HOGS:
While the cattle complex plummets ahead of the weekend, the lean hog
contracts are minding their own business, trading mildly higher into Friday's
noon hour. February lean hogs are up $0.17 at $87.97, April lean hogs are up
$0.02 at $95.02 and June lean hogs are up $0.32 at $107.40. It is helpful to
note that midday pork cutout values are a tick higher, which continues to lend
traders additional fundamental support and help keep the contracts trading
higher.
The projected lean hog index for 1/15/2026 is up $0.50 at $81.00 and the
actual index for 1/14/2026 is up $0.11 at $80.50. Hog prices are again
unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report because of confidentiality.
However, we can see that only 160 head have trade. Pork cutouts total 154.21
loads with 130.43 loads of pork cuts and 23.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout
values: up $0.10, $93.70.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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